Inflation moved higher in May, with Total CPI rising to 3.2%, up from 2.8% in April. The increase was driven largely by one factor – gasoline prices. Statistics Canada reported that gas prices rose 33.2% from a year earlier. Funnily enough, U.S. inflation fell to 3.5% in June, even as international conflict disrupted oil shipments.

As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held the key rate at 2.25% on July 15th – marking the sixth meeting with no change since the last adjustment in October of 2025. Some economists are forecasting that rates will remain on hold through the rest of the year as policymakers continue weighing competing economic forces.

Looking beneath the headline inflation number tells a more measured story. CPI-trim and CPI-median, which are used to get a fairer read on inflation, were unchanged from April at 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively. These measures filter out some of the more volatile price swings and suggest that underlying inflation pressures remain relatively stable and close to the BoC’s target range.

As the ongoing mess regarding the free flow of oil transit unfolds, folds, and unfolds again… fuel prices have gone up and down and around in recent weeks. National gas prices declined by approximately 7.4% in June, but now look to be on the rise again.

Food prices continue to climb. Food inflation accelerated to 3.8%, up from 3.5%, with fresh fruit prices rising 5.3% and vegetables rising 9%. Higher fertilizer costs have contributed to those increases, adding pressure to grocery bills. 

For homeowners, the latest inflation report is a reminder how global events can influence everyday costs. Still, with core inflation holding steady and gas prices already moving lower, there are signs that May’s spike may prove temporary rather than the start of a broader trend.

If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply curious about what these economic trends mean for your real estate plans, let’s chat – I am always happy to help you make sense of the market and explore your next move.